{"id":4727,"date":"2025-02-06T18:32:29","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T17:32:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fomoday.com\/bitcoin-stagnuje-zatial-co-trh-je-coraz-zmatenejsi-mohla-by-byt-altcoinova-sezona-na-obzore\/"},"modified":"2025-02-06T18:41:06","modified_gmt":"2025-02-06T17:41:06","slug":"bitcoin-stagnuje-zatial-co-trh-je-coraz-zmatenejsi-mohla-by-byt-altcoinova-sezona-na-obzore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fomoday.com\/sk\/bitcoin-stagnuje-zatial-co-trh-je-coraz-zmatenejsi-mohla-by-byt-altcoinova-sezona-na-obzore\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin stagnuje, zatia\u013e \u010do trh je \u010doraz zm\u00e4tenej\u0161\u00ed. Mohla by by\u0165 altcoinov\u00e1 sez\u00f3na na obzore?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cena Bitcoinu zažíva vysokú volatilitu, keďže trhová logika sa vytráca<\/h2>\n\n

Cena Bitcoinu v poslednom čase zažíva značnú volatilitu a zdá sa, že trhová logika sa vytráca. V čase, keď najväčšia svetová ekonomika aktívne podporuje kryptomeny – a keď samotný americký prezident významne investuje do kryptomien – by sa dala očakávať silná rally. Napriek tomu v pondelok Bitcoin testoval úrovne okolo 91 000 USD. Nálada na trhu sa rýchlo mení. Blíži sa altcoinová sezóna? <\/p>\n\n

Index strachu a chamtivosti odráža výkyvy nálady na trhu<\/h2>\n\n

Index strachu a chamtivosti, ktorého cieľom je merať aktuálnu náladu na trhu okolo Bitcoinu, v posledných dňoch výrazne kolísal. V piatok vykázal hodnotu 76, čo naznačuje extrémnu chamtivosť. Do pondelka však klesol na 44 (neutrálny sentiment, prikláňajúci sa k strachu). V utorok sa odrazila na 72 (chamtivosť, blízko extrémnej úrovne) a dnes je na úrovni 49 (neutrálna). <\/p>\n\n

Index sa skladá z týchto faktorov: volatilita (25 %), objemy obchodovania (25 %), sentiment v sociálnych médiách (15 %), dominancia (10 %) a Google Trends (10 %). Predtým boli zahrnuté aj týždenné prieskumy z portálu Strawpoll.com (15 %), ale časom sa ich význam znížil. <\/p>\n\n

\"Vývoj
Trend indexu strachu a chamtivosti za posledný mesiac (Zdroj: alternative.me)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Obchodníci očakávali príchod sezóny altcoinov<\/h2>\n\n

Koncom minulého roka sa často špekulovalo o začiatku altcoinovej sezóny. Benjamin Cowen, tvorca nástroja Into The Cryptoverse, už v auguste predpovedal, že keď dominancia bitcoinu dosiahne 60 %, nastane posun k altcoinom. Začiatkom novembra sa dominancia Bitcoinu skutočne začala znižovať a nakrátko klesla pod 55 %. Od decembra sa však obrátila a začala opäť rásť – tento týždeň dosiahla 64,34 %. <\/p>\n\n

\"Týždenný
Týždenný graf dominancie Bitcoinu s trendovou čiarou (Zdroj: TradingView)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Kedy sa začne altcoinová sezóna?<\/h2>\n\n

Nikto nemôže s istotou povedať, kedy sa začne altcoinová sezóna, ale niektorí analytici sa domnievajú, že správanie trhu sa zmenilo. Na základe historických trendov sa zdá, že niektorí investori už začali alokovať finančné prostriedky priamo do altcoinov a meme coinov, čím zmenili zaužívané modely. Index altcoinovej sezóny je zrejme najlepším ukazovateľom tejto zmeny. <\/p>\n\n

Tento index meria výkonnosť 50 najlepších altcoinov za posledných 90 dní a porovnáva ju s výkonnosťou Bitcoinu. Ak má Bitcoin lepšiu výkonnosť ako 25 % týchto altcoinov, považuje sa za obdobie Bitcoinu. Naopak, ak je výkonnosť Bitcoinu horšia ako 75 % altcoinov, považuje sa za sezónu altcoinov. <\/p>\n\n

\"Altcoin
Altcoin Season Index Trend (Zdroj: blockchaincenter.net)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Z grafu vyplýva, že v decembri altcoiny na krátky čas výrazne prekonali Bitcoin, ale odvtedy sa trh vrátil do rovnovážneho stavu. Aktuálne výsledky naznačujú, že výkonnosť Bitcoinu zostala v rámci indexu na strednej úrovni. <\/p>\n\n

\"Podrobné
Podrobné porovnanie výkonnosti Bitcoinu a 50 najlepších altcoinov za posledných 90 dní (Zdroj: blockchaincenter.net)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

<\/p>\n\n

Úloha udalostí v USA pri výkonnosti Bitcoinu<\/h2>\n\n

Osobne sa domnievam, že za silným výkonom Bitcoinu stoja udalosti v Spojených štátoch. Spotové bitcoinové ETF lámu rekordy, prezident investuje do kryptomien a vláda pripravuje legislatívne zmeny na zaradenie Bitcoinu do strategických rezerv. Predpokladám, že bez týchto udalostí by výkonnosť Bitcoinu nebola taká vysoká a altcoinová sezóna by sa už možno začala. Očakávam, že tento hype do jari vyprchá a vtedy sa možno konečne presunieme do altcoinovej sezóny. <\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n

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